XOM: Oil, natural gas to produce 55% of energy in 2040

All energy sources remain important in 2040, as global efforts grow to limit rising temperatures from climate change, the company said.

Natural gas demand will likely grow to 445 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2040, and oil demand is estimated to decline to 78 million barrels per day (MMBPD) by 2040, Kallanish Energy has learned.

Major oil and natural gas investments costing trillions of dollars are still needed, ExxonMobil said. “Our job is to supply the energy the world needs in an environmentally responsible way,” said chairman and CEO Darren W. Woods, in a statement.

Here are other key findings from the 61-page report:

* In 2040, oil will still be the No. 1 energy source, with demand rising 20%, driven by commercial transportation and chemicals.

* Increasing electrification of light-duty vehicles will likely grow very strongly. Full hybrid, plug-in hybrid and electric-only vehicles will approach 40% of global light-duty vehicles sales in 2040, compared to 3% in 2016.

* Electricity from solar and wind will increase by roughly 400%.

* Nuclear and renewable energy sources are likely to account for nearly 40% of the growth in global energy demand to 2040.

* The shares of the world’s electricity generated by coal is expected to fall below 30% in 2040, from roughly 40% in 2016.

* Global energy needs will likely grow 25%, and electricity demands will nearly double in countries like China and India. By 2040, demand will grow about 40%, or about the same amount of electricity used today by Americans.

The report also includes ExxonMobil’s analysis of 2 Degree Celsius scenarios and include sensitivity analyses on electric vehicle penetration and renewables deployment.

The goal is to limit the global average temperature rise in year 2100 to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and that might be achieved by limiting atmospheric concentrations to the equivalent of 450 parts per million of CO2 in 2100.

That work is based on an analysis of multiple lower-carbon scenarios published by the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum.

The report is available at www.exxonmobil.com/energyoutlook.